A lack of training opportunities may be contributing to the shortage of workers for high-paying, middle-skills jobs, particularly in blue-collar, management, protective services and STEM occupations in metro areas, according to a new report.
The Georgetown University Center for Education and the Workforce (CEW) found that middle-skills providers have to significantly boost their production of certificates and associate degrees to address these shortages in many metro areas. In fact, CEW projects that the current credential supply will meet only 13% of the expected annual demand through 2032 for those occupations, falling short by more than 360,000 credentials. Washington, D.C., Dallas and Boston will experience the greatest blue-collar shortages relative to projected labor-market demand, the center says.
To avoid local shortages, many providers will need to more than double the number of credentials they award in programs aligned with high-paying middle-skills occupations.
CEW notes that, despite a national shortage of workers, only 25% of early-career middle-skills workers earn more than most young workers with a bachelor’s degree. However, it added that young workers (ages 18 to 35) who do land a high-paying, middle-skills job often earn more than young workers with baccalaurates. They also often see considerable earnings growth over time, with median annual earnings that increase from more than $53,000 to $80,000 by mid-career.
Details on shortages — and oversupply
More moderate shortages are expected in high-paying management, protective services and STEM middle-skills occupations, the report says. In high-paying middle-skills management occupations, 39 of the 55 largest U.S. metro areas will face credential shortages.
Ten major metro areas will likely face a credential shortage in workforce education programs for high-paying middle-skills STEM occupations, but many smaller metro areas and rural communities will face severe shortages, the report says. As a result, current credential production is projected to meet only 60% of demand nationwide through 2032.
Protective services — which includes police, firefighters, detectives and others — is the only occupational group for which CEW projects an undersupply of middle-skills workers in major metro areas, resulting in a total annual projected shortage of nearly 15,000 credentials.
Meanwhile, healthcare — which includes registered nurses, respiratory therapists, paramedics and others — is the only occupation that’s projected to have an oversupply of credentials aligned with high-paying middle-skills occupations. This is, in part, due to increasing demand for workers with bachelor’s degrees in healthcare occupations historically held by workers with middle-skills credentials, CEW explains.
“Between 2010 and 2022, the proportion of workers with middle-skills education in these healthcare occupations decreased from 46% to 25%. If this trend continues, middle-skills workers will make up only 10% of the workforce in these healthcare occupations by 2032,” the report says.
Recommendations
CEW recommends three ways middle-skills providers can expand their efforts. First, providers need to recruit more individuals without a college degree to attend their institutions. Second, high schools and institutions that grant middle-skills credentials need to offer better career counseling to future and current enrollees. Third, employers need to work with institutions to provide more work-based learning opportunities in programs that lead to occupations facing shortages, especially those that require work-based learning as preparation for employment following program completion.
However, even with these changes, current providers will likely struggle to fully address credential shortages in many metro areas.
“Ultimately, we believe that more providers will need to enter the market to eliminate credential shortages in many of the largest U.S. metro areas,” the report says.
The CEW research was supported by JPMorganChase.
