Editor’s note: The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center announced on January 13, 2025, that it erred in its fall 2024 freshmen and dual-enrollment estimates released in October 2024. Read the article.
Dual enrollment and adult learners appear to be driving overall enrollment increases at community colleges, according to early findings on fall enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) Research Center.
Overall, undergraduate enrollment across all higher education sectors is up 3% this fall, the preliminary report says. Public two-year colleges are seeing a 4.7% bump, while primarily associate-degree granting baccalaureate institutions (PABs) are seeing a 5.2% increase. Since fall 2022, public two-year colleges have seen an 8.8% increase in enrollments; PABs have seen a 7.4% over the same period.
Despite the promising enrollment increases, overall freshman enrollment across all sectors has declined -5% this fall, driven mainly by declines among traditional freshmen age 18 (-5.8%) and first-time college students who are 19 to 20 years old (-8.6%). These declines have been buoyed by double-digit increases among first-timers who are 21 to 24 and 25 to 29 years old (increases of 10.5% and 20%, respectively).
The freshman drop is across all sectors, with public and private nonprofit four-year institutions seeing the largest declines, -8.5% and -6.5%, respectively. Community colleges (public two-year colleges and PABs combined) are seeing smaller freshman enrollment declines at -0.4%.
Key drivers
Clearinghouse officials noted that increases in non-freshman students and dual-enrolled high school students are pushing the enrollment gains this fall among all sectors. At public two-year colleges, dual enrollment is up 7.3% this fall, slowing a little from last fall’s 9.2% increase. At PABs, it has increased by 6.0%, up from the 3.3% increase last fall.
At community colleges, the increase in dual-enrolled students accounts for one-quarter of undergraduate enrollment growth, the report says. Since fall 2022, dual enrollment has jumped 17.1% at public two-year institutions and 9.5% at PABs. At public four-year institutions, dual enrollment is up 15.5% over the same period, and up 22.9% at private nonprofit institutions.
Students ages 25 to 29 appear to be another significant driver this fall for public two-year colleges. This age group has seen a 6.3% increase in enrollment, after seeing just a 0.1% increase last fall.
“It is startling to see such a substantial drop in freshmen, the first decline since the start of the pandemic in 2020 when they plunged nearly 10%,” Doug Shapiro, the research center’s executive director, said in a release. “But the gains among students either continuing from last year or returning from prior stop-outs are keeping overall undergraduate numbers growing, especially at community colleges, and that’s at least some good news for students and schools alike.”
The report is based on data reported by 52% of Clearinghouse-participating institutions as of September 26, covering 8.7 million undergraduate and graduate students. The research center expects to release the final report on fall enrollment in January.
Certificates still hot
The number of students pursuing shorter-term credentials continues to grow rapidly, with enrollment in undergraduate certificate programs increasing by 7.3%, the report says. There is continued strong interest in the skilled trades and vocational and technical programs, with enrollment gains in mechanical and repair technologies/technicians programs at both the undergraduate certificate (13.6%) and associate-degree (9.6%) levels.
Enrollment also grew significantly for certificate programs in construction trades and engineering technologies/technicians and associate-degree programs in science technologies/technicians, the report says. Most of the top 20 certificate and associate-degree programs are seeing growth, especially in health professions and related clinical sciences.
Demographics
Enrollment at public two-year colleges is up among all ethnicities and races, with the largest increase among Asian students (up by 8.7%, compared to 4.6% last fall) and multiracial students (up by 6.9%, compared to 3.6% last year). Since fall 2022, enrollment among Hispanic, Asian and multiracial students has increased in the double digits (12.8%, 13.9% and 10.7%, respectively); Black students have seen a 9.1% increase. While the decrease among White students at two-year colleges has essentially stopped (it’s at 0.2% this fall, compared to -1.9% last fall), it is still down -1.7% since fall 2022.
PABs have seen even more increases this fall than public two-year colleges, led by a 8.5% jump among Hispanic students, a 7.6% increase among Black students and a 6.9% increase among multiracial students. White student enrollment at PABs was similar to those at public two-year colleges, with declines slowing down this year, but still down -6.2% since fall 2022. Enrollment among other races/ethnicities is up over the same period.
A look at Pell students
Clearinghouse also looked at enrollment changes based on students receiving Pell grants. The data show that high-Pell-serving community colleges (again bundling public two-year colleges and PABs) are growing at a higher rate than high-Pell-serving four-year public and private nonprofit institutions — 6.0%, 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively.
The report adds that the trend tracks with findings that freshman enrollment is growing at high-Pell-serving community colleges, with declines at comparable four-year institutions.
Clearinghouse noted the information should be interpreted with some caution as high-Pell-serving institutions are underrepresented in the preliminary data.
