When Thomas Barkin became the eighth president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (Richmond Fed) in 2018, one of the things he wanted to take a closer look at was rural-versus-urban outcomes in the bank’s district, which comprises Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.
Part of the mandate of the 12-region Reserve Bank system — an independent research organization that is not part of the federal government — is to maximize employment, so the information could provide key insights.
Barkin deployed a team to dig into data, including education and employment outcomes. Among the sources it tapped was the U.S. Education Department’s Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), which is the agency’s main postsecondary education data collection program that gathers a wide array of information, including enrollment, completions, graduation rates, financial aid and more.
Register: The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond will hold a webinar on November 19 to release findings from its 2024 Survey of Community College Outcomes.
Among the information the Richmond Fed examined was community college graduation rates, which it found surprisingly low. IPEDS figures showed the district’s average community college completion rate (29.5%) was less than half that of the district’s public four-year institutions (68%).
That’s when Laura Ullrich joined the project to find what was driving those numbers at community colleges.
Rolling up their sleeves
Ullrich herself was new to the Richmond Fed, having joined as a regional economist in February 2019 after serving for 12 years as a college administrator and economics professor. Much of her research as an economist focused on K-12 and four-year higher education — but not community colleges. She knew a little about the public two-year sector’s dislike of the IPEDS measure, having read about it, but that was the extent of her knowledge at the time.
Ullrich and the team started reaching out to community college leaders, asking them how they define success of their students and why students were coming to them in the first place. She told them one of the bank’s mandates is to maximize employment in the district, and the agency felt community colleges play an important role in that.
A common criticism by college leaders during the interviews was that IPEDS didn’t measure two-year colleges well. In fact, it didn’t come close to gauging what kind of job they were doing in serving students. For example, IPEDS captures only full-time students and those who enter during the fall semester, and it excludes workforce-recognized credentials, as well students who transfer to a four-year institution without first earning a credential. College officials added that IPEDS only use a window of three years to track completion, when it’s well documented that community college students take longer to complete a credential because they tend to be older and have to balance work and family.
A survey and more
In 2021, the Richmond Fed developed a survey to create a success metric that included data excluded from IPEDS, such as part-time students and transfers, and it used a four-year completion window. It also decided to collect other data that colleges considered important, such as information on non-credit, dual enrollment and wraparound services. The Richmond Fed started with a 10-school pilot and scaled it quickly, expanding to 63 last year and 121 this year.
The results showed what community colleges have argued for a long time: community college students are much more successful than shown in IPEDS data. The Richmond Fed’s 2023 student success rate (which is based on 63 colleges) is 51.8%, compared to the IPEDS rate of 29.1%.
Another crucial finding: the variation among community college students. Not only were they more diverse than four-year students based on race/ethnicity and age, but so were their goals, such as whether they intended to transfer to a four-year institution or earn a certificate for work.
The bank’s team not only sent surveys to participating colleges, but it also visited dozens campuses, which informed its work. The team saw firsthand why among urban colleges the transfer rates were higher — because more local employers sought employees with baccalaureates — compared to rural colleges, where a larger percentage of students focused on attaining a certificate to get local jobs that don’t require degrees.
“When you do that, and you’re onsite somewhere like Central Piedmont Community College in Charlotte, and then you compare that to Roanoke-Chowan [Community College] — a small, rural college in another part of North Carolina — you see those schools are very, very different institutions,” Ullrich said in an interview with CC Daily.
Why it matters
A more accurate picture of community colleges and their students is crucial, Ullrich noted. It shapes perceptions about the sector and individual colleges — from potential students, donors and funders, to employers and policymakers — which can drive decisions where they should spend their resources. A foundation even told Ullrich that it used IPEDS data in evaluating scholarship applications because its didn’t want its grants to be used at colleges with low completion rates.
Even though community college advocates have for years tried to draw attention to the incomplete IPEDS data, it continues to be the go-to figure for many.
“If you Google any community college graduation rate, that’s what pops up on the screen,” Ullrich said.
Getting the word out
The Richmond Fed has steadily spread the word about its project, sharing its findings with various stakeholders, from chambers of commerce, foundations, high school counselor organizations and more. Later this week, Ullrich will present information about the project at the American Association of Community Colleges fall meetings in Washington, D.C.
On November 19, the team will hold a free webinar to release findings from its 2024 survey.
Next year, the office plans to roll out a dashboard for public use. For example, colleges will be able to find similar institutions – based on urbanicity, demographics or local business and industry — to compare their data. Also, states can see how other states run certain programs, such as dual enrollment, which tend to vary among states.
The Richmond Fed hopes to expand it survey next year by adding another five to 10 states, said Ullrich, who in August was named director of the regional bank’s Community College Initiative.
“Our goal is to start pushing out nationally in 2025, with the ultimate goal of having as many colleges in this database as possible,” she said. “It would be beautiful if we could have all of them, right?”
