A steady drop projected for high school grads

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The long-expected drop in high school graduates — which colleges watch closely as it affects their enrollments — is coming soon, but it will be gradual rather than a “demographic cliff,” and it will impact racial/ethnic groups and regions differently, with some populations and states likely to see increases.

Those are among the findings of a comprehensive report on high school graduates from the Western Interstate Community for Higher Education (WICHE), which has released the data every four years since 1979.

The U.S. will reach its peak number of high school graduates next year (3.9 million) and then start to steadily decline, with projections indicating a -13% drop by 2041 (3.4 million graduates), the report says. But postsecondary institutions have some cushion to craft strategies to buffer expected resulting enrollment declines, according to WICHE.

WICHE will hold a webcast on its findings on December 11 at 1 p.m. MT.

“States and institutions have time right now to build on approaches that will work in their contexts to meet current and future workforce needs. There are still plenty of potential students out there, including recent high school graduates who historically haven’t been well-served by our education systems, those who may be leaving college short of a degree, and adult learners, including those with previous college experience,” noted WICHE President Demarée Michelau.

Varying impacts

Despite the projected decline, the WICHE report shows that the drop will vary among demographics and locations. Thirty-eight states will see losses in high school graduates by 2041, with five of the largest states by population — California (-29%), Illinois (-32%), Michigan (-20%), New York (-27%) and Pennsylvania (-17%) — accounting for about three-quarters of the decline in high school graduates, the report says.

But a few states, mainly in the South, will see increases, including Tennessee (+15%), South Carolina (+14%) and Florida (+12%). Idaho and North Dakota are expected to see 13% increases.

There are likely to be differences based on urbanicity and demographics, too. While the percentage of students from schools in cities will decline from 31% to 29% between the 2022-23 and 2033-34 school years, high school seniors from suburban schools are projected to increase from 43% to 45% of the total, and those from schools in rural areas are projected to increase from 15% to 16% of the total, the report says.

The study also finds that increases are expected among some underrepresented students. For example, Hispanic students, who will comprise nearly 1.1 million graduates by 2041, will grow from 26% to 36% of the total public graduating class. Multiracial students are expected to almost double to 214,000 by 2041, representing about 7% of public school graduates. However, the percentage of White (-26%), Black (-22%) and American Indian/Alaska Native (-23%) high school graduates will decline significantly.

The overall expected declines are due mainly to declining U.S. birth rates, but the impact of Covid is also a factor, the report says. The initial graduating classes weren’t significantly affected, but the pandemic could have a larger impact on earlier grades, as some students dropped out and have not returned.

Ideas to address the declines

The anticipated declines will affect many sectors, from higher education to employers. WICHE recommends a few strategies for colleges and their partners to help reduce the potential impact:

  • Invest in college affordability on a larger scale to make college possible for all students through a new state-federal partnership.
  • Enhance advising and the development of stronger school-to-work and work-to-learning pipelines.
  • Reduce complexity for college admissions and financial aid.
  • Expand wraparound supports for students across all areas of need, including financial and academic supports, food and transportation programs, and more.
  • Address access and persistence gaps.
  • Expand credit for prior learning for adult students.

“Demography need not be destiny. There are proven approaches to increasing student access and success, especially for those whom higher education has not historically served well,” Michelau said in the report. “Higher education is recognizing the different yet valuable pathways that students of all ages may take to contribute to the workforce in meaningful ways.”

Patrick Lane, WICHE’s vice president for policy analysis and research and lead author of the report, observed that the policy recommendations fit particularly well in the community college wheelhouse.

“Community colleges are an essential piece of the puzzle to help address the demographic cliff,” he told CC Daily, noting their affordability, workforce development programs, and efforts to improve access and success, especially among underrepresented students. “They are probably best positioned to respond to help students navigate some of the barriers we put in their way.”

Lane emphasized that postsecondary enrollments are important because colleges produce the workforce pipeline for many industries, from high-profile sectors such as information technology and healthcare, to trucking/transportation and agriculture and ranching. It’s especially important as nearly all industries are facing worker shortages.

“That’s when it’s time to double down on some of the access and success programs,” he said.

The College Board and Lumina Foundation funded the report.

About the Author

Matthew Dembicki
Matthew Dembicki edits Community College Daily and serves as associate vice president of communications for the American Association of Community Colleges.
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